Customer Churn Analysis Tool
Break your monthly cancellations into avoidable vs unavoidable churn and see how much MRR is realistically recoverable.
Avoidable churn
33
83% of cancellations
Unavoidable churn
7
Recoverable MRR (est.)
$727
Reply rate
45% of cancellations replied with a reason.
Next action
Failed payments are over a quarter of your churn. Ship a basic dunning sequence this week.
How it works
The tool splits your cancellations into failed-payment churn (the most recoverable bucket) and voluntary churn, then uses the top reason you picked to estimate what share of voluntary churn was actually avoidable. The recoverable MRR estimate uses conservative defaults: 80% recovery on failed payments, 12% on avoidable voluntary cancellations.
When to use this
Use this at the end of each month to decide where to spend retention effort. If failed payments dominate, ship dunning. If missing-feature is the top voluntary reason, tag those customers and email them when the feature ships. If you have no replies at all, the leak is upstream of every fix you could make.
What to do next
Run this on the last 30 days of real data from the Churn Leak Report instead of guesses. Then drop captured replies into the Cancellation Reply Analyzer to find the win-back candidates.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is customer churn analysis?
Customer churn analysis is the process of breaking your monthly cancellations into reasons, dollar amounts, and recoverable opportunity. The goal is to separate the churn you can fix (avoidable) from the churn you cannot (unavoidable) and decide where to spend your retention effort.
What counts as avoidable vs unavoidable churn?
Avoidable churn includes failed payments, pricing objections you can address with a smaller plan, missing features you can ship, and onboarding friction you can fix. Unavoidable churn includes businesses shutting down, role changes, or use cases that simply no longer apply.
How does this tool estimate recoverable MRR?
It assumes failed payments are roughly 80% recoverable with a basic dunning sequence, and the avoidable share of voluntary cancellations recovers at a more conservative 12% with reason-matched outreach. These are deliberately conservative defaults; real recovery is highly product-specific.
What's a good reply rate from cancellations?
A founder-style email asking 'what could we have done differently?' typically gets a 25-40% reply rate, far higher than survey response rates. If your reply rate is under 15%, the email isn't landing or the ask isn't personal enough.
How ChurnNote helps
Run this on real Stripe or Lemon Squeezy data with ChurnNote.
ChurnNote connects to Stripe or Lemon Squeezy and automatically captures cancellation reasons, recovers failed payments, and queues win-back emails. So you stop losing revenue silently.
Start recovering churnNext step
Run the same analysis on real Stripe/Lemon Squeezy data
The Churn Leak Report pulls cancellations, failed payments, and reason coverage automatically.
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