Customer Churn Risk Calculator
Score a single customer against well-known churn signals. Get a risk band, the reasons it fired, and a suggested founder-style outreach.
Churn risk score
52 / 100 — High
- • 14+ days since last login
- • Recent failed payment
- • Elevated support tickets
- • Usage down 25%+
- • Viewed downgrade page
Suggested action
High-value customer. Send a personal email about the failed payment and offer to fix it manually. Don't wait for Stripe's retry schedule. Prioritize this one above the others.
Suggested founder email
Hi {{first_name}},
Saw your last charge for {{product}} didn't go through. Want me to fix the card on file for you, or send a fresh update link? Either way, your account is still here.
{{founder}}How it works
Each signal contributes points based on how predictive it is of cancellation: failed payments and cancel-page views are highest, login inactivity and usage drop are medium, support ticket volume is a softer signal. The total maps to four risk bands: Low, Medium, High, Critical.
When to use this
Use this when triaging a specific account — a high-value customer whose usage just dropped, or a subscription that just had a card decline. For a full pipeline view, you want the Churn Leak Report instead.
What to do next
High-risk customers reward personal outreach more than automation. If you only have time for one move per week, focus on the ones with failed payments — they are the cheapest to recover and the most likely to convert.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this a real churn prediction model?
No. It's a founder-friendly heuristic that combines well-known churn signals — login inactivity, failed payments, plan value, support load, usage drop, and cancel-page visits — into a single score. The result is a prioritization tool, not a data science model.
What signals matter most?
Failed payments and cancel-page visits are the highest-signal warnings. Login inactivity and usage drops are slower-moving. Support ticket spikes can swing both ways: they sometimes mean the customer is engaging deeply, but high volume usually correlates with frustration.
How do I act on a high risk score?
Send a personal email today, not a templated drip. Address the specific signal that fired — a failed-payment retry, a quick walkthrough offer, or an honest 'what's not working?' note. The goal is one human reply, not a marketing touch.
Does ChurnNote do this automatically?
ChurnNote Radar watches Stripe and Lemon Squeezy webhooks for the same signals (failed payments, subscription cancels, plan changes) and surfaces at-risk customers without you having to score them manually.
How ChurnNote helps
ChurnNote Radar detects these churn signals automatically.
ChurnNote connects to Stripe or Lemon Squeezy and automatically captures cancellation reasons, recovers failed payments, and queues win-back emails. So you stop losing revenue silently.
Start recovering churnNext step
See your full at-risk pipeline, not just one account
The Churn Leak Report applies these signals across every customer in your Stripe or Lemon Squeezy data.
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